Greek shipping heir Peter Nomikos has a plan wipe out Greek debt. His idea is to buy all the Greek bonds then forgive the debt.

Given that Greek bonds sell for 12 cents on the dollar, on the surface his plan may seem like a reasonable idea. First let’s consider the idea, then potential problems.

Der Spiegel interviews Peter Nomikos who says ‘For a Donation of 3,000 Euros, Every Greek Can Buy Freedom’

Greek shipping heir Peter Nomikos has taken matters into his own hands. While EU leaders wrangle for a solution to Greece’s problems, Nomikos started a non-profit to wipe out the country’s debt. If all of his countrymen do their part, he tells SPIEGEL ONLINE, they will be able to shore up the country’s finances.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Mr. Nomikos, you have just started a campaign to free Greece of debt. Your organization buys up Greek bonds and then forgives the debt. Are you serious?

Nomikos: Professionally, I deal with distressed debt. And it struck me that Greece has a historical opportunity. In the euro, the Greeks have a very strong currency, while the price of their government bonds has collapsed. That makes it possible to buy back debt at very low prices and reduce the Greek debt burden with relatively little expenditure.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: You are asking your countrymen for donations. What do you tell them?

Nomikos: If you break down the national debt, each Greek owes around €25,000 ($31,485). So I am telling my fellow citizens to make themselves debt-free. Greek government bonds with a nominal value of one euro currently trade for around 12 cents. For a donation of around €3,000, every Greek can buy his freedom.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: How many bonds has your foundation already bought?

Nomikos: We always buy those bonds that have the deepest discount. So far we have invested €273,000 ($343,816) and hold €2.2 million ($2.8 million) in Greek debt.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: And then you cancel the debt?

Nomikos: Not immediately. If we did that, we would decrease the impact of our project. When the GDP-to-debt ratio goes down, bond prices go up. If the movement becomes a great success, this could become a problem, because we cannot buy debt as cheaply on the markets. So we hold these bonds for a while and use any profits to buy more bonds. We plan to amass as many bonds as possible and then cancel the debt all at once.
Problematical Math

The population of Greece is 11,316,000. At €3,000 per person, Nomikos would need to raise nearly €34 billion. That is far lower than the €283 billion in bonds (at €25,000 per person), but it is hardly inconsequential.
Bond prices will not stay at 12 cents on the dollar if the program makes any reasonable headway.
Greek banks and pension plans are the biggest holders of Greek debt. I highly suspect neither has marked bonds to market. They certainly have not marked the bonds to zero. In other words there are severe implications should Nomikos succeed.

Source: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Source: Business & Finance News - Yahoo! Finance

Paul Krugman writes that Keynesian thought has progressed.

I disagree in comments with the usual

I do not think that Keynesians accept that there is a natural rate of unemployment. The concept is inconsistent with hysteresis. OJ Blanchard and LH Summers are definitely Keynesians. They presented a model without a natural rate in 1986. I don’t know about Blanchard but Summers and his former student JB DeLong continue to stress hysteresis (with an open mind about the sum of autoregressive coefficients of unemployment on lagged unemployment so there model might or might not be consistent with a natural rate but with certainly no evidence of any faith in policy invariant stationarity). Also there is this guy named Krugman (have you heard of him) who shows no sign of faith in a natural rate and writes about life long (OK not permanent but life long) effects of low demand on labor market experience.

Finally Wren Lewis refers to the hysteresis effects of the Thatcher deflation when he isn’t referring to New Keynesian models with no such effects as successful cutting edge models and great progress on 1960 vintage Keynesian analysis of the possible Phillips curve (by Samuelson and Solow who extensively discussed both outward shifts due to increased expected inflation and outward shifts due to cyclical unemployment becoming structural).

Note also that without using the name “Phillips” because he wrote beforee Phillips, Keynes specifically warned that there wasn’t a stable relationship between output and inflation. He noted the case of “flight from the currency” not yet named “hyperinflation” by Cagan rather anticipating the work of say Sargent.

Now it is true that Keynesians were convincedby Friedman mostly that velocity is fairly stable and predictable. But it isn’t.

I assert that Keynesian thought hasn’t made a both scientific and theoretical advance since Keynes where by scientific I mean actually useful in predicting out of sample and by theoretical I mean not just new parameter estimates made with data not available to Keynes using computers not available to Keynes.

Some semi prominent New Keynesians were amused enough to try to come up with examples. They failed.

In any case certainly not the absense of a stable expectations unaugmented Phillisp curve (as predicted by Keynes) nor the discovery of the LM curve which uh you know doesn’t exist.

Source: Angry Bear

In the wake of a huge market reaction on Friday, it’s interesting to see how the headlines read other places, especially Spain.

Here is one such viewpoint by El Confidencial: Government ‘sacrificed’ Bank of Spain in Exchange for Financial Sector Bailout

The clearest conclusion to the European Agreement made by Spain and Italy is that our government has preferred to sacrifice the sovereignty of the banking supervision enjoyed by the Bank of Spain in exchange for the bailout of the sector does not compute as debt or deficit and that The European rescue fund to buy Spanish debt when things get as ugly as this week. However, many unknowns are open, including the timing of the operation. Therefore, the FROB who will initially inject capital to entities that need it in September, with funds from European loan subsequently permutarán MEDE the money.

“The government has chosen to advance the loss of competition in banking supervision, it was inevitable sooner or later if you go to a European Banking Union in exchange for breaking the feedback loop between the banking and public debt, which is very positive and not only for Spain, “says an analyst.

Officials of both Economy and the Bank of Spain claimed yesterday that has not yet been defined how will such a monitoring mechanism or what the status of the former Central Bank. Some sources believe that it is logical that national central banks are the arms of the central agency in each country and to continue in office today, but accountable to a higher power who will make the final decisions.

Other experts, such as Eurointelligence, say that “it is far from clear that Germany is willing to give up their own banks to supervision by the ECB.” It is also unclear what will happen to insurance, which can not be monitored by the ECB according to the EU Treaty. Or if the conditions to be imposed in order to use the European Stability Mechanism (MEDE), conditions that likely will go beyond the financial sector despite yesterday again denying Mariano Rajoy.

A major uncertainty centers on the period within which this new monitoring system will come into force, which is the condition for the MEDE to inject money directly to banks. In principle, the idea is to reach an agreement in October to put in place before year end. But “it is unrealistic to expect an agreement by October? MEDE himself was delayed. The EU has consistently been too optimistic on the timing,” adds the analyst firm.

The terms do not match

And although respected, there is an inconsistency between this term and timing of the rescue plan by Spain. This includes the signing of the memorandum with the conditions for the sector on 9 July, the end of the audit work in each state on July 31 and defining the specific needs of each in September, when performing the new stress test bottom-up (bottom up). Thereafter, viable entities that need capital will have nine months to get their media, and immediately nonviable may receive the loan proceeds Europe.

Therefore, various sources claim that the FROB will perform the first injection of capital until the conditions for you to do the MEDE. So initially counted as debt itself. So then have to do a swap between the FROB and MEDE. Another option is to wait until the system is willing, but the markets probably will not have much patience, and as mentioned, is likely to be delayed.

A priori, it seems very complicated to start with the FROB and replaced by MEDE, but the text of the Declaration of the Summit opened the door this way, referring to Ireland: “The Eurogroup will review the status of the Irish financial sector with a view to further improving the sustainability of the adjustment program is working well. Similar cases are treated in the same way. ” That similar case would be Spain.
ESM Agreement Raises More Questions Than Answers

The above article certainly raises a lot of questions. Gavyn Davies at the Financial Times also says More questions than answers after the summit

In the wake of yet another summit, we need to ask our usual question: is this the eurozone’s game changer?

My fear is that, as so often in the past, the devil will prove to be in the detail. The more carefully one examines the text of the statement, the more questions are raised about how the proposed measures will actually work.

In particular, it is debatable whether there are any terms for direct eurozone recapitalisation of Spanish banks which will be acceptable both to the Spanish government and to the German Bundestag. (The latter will be empowered to “monitor” the new arrangement, according to Mrs Merkel’s spokesman.) And the shortage of remaining funds in the EFSF/ESM, which I discussed here last week, has certainly not been solved.

1. Direct bank recapitalisation by the ESM

This is clearly the critical new development which potentially allows the costs of recapitalising troubled banks to fall on the eurozone as a whole, rather than on an individual sovereign country. It could therefore represent a very large step towards debt mutualisation, and it directly addresses the point which the markets so disliked in the Spanish bank deal two weeks ago. The statement says that this can only be done after the eurozone’s new bank supervisor is “established”, and that this should only be “considered” by the Council before the end of the year. … I suspect that Germany will be quite demanding is setting these terms. Otherwise, there could be great problems with the constitutional court in Karlsruhe. …

3. ESM support for the Spanish and Italian bond markets

The final paragraph of the statement gives the strong impression that the ESM will in future be able to stabilise these bond markets in a “flexible and efficient” manner. This appears to be a major victory for Mario Monti, but actually it does not contain anything really different from the status quo.

4. The availability of funds for the ES

German Finance Minister Schauble emphatically said yesterday to the Wall Street Journal that there would be no increase in the size of the ESM, and that position has been maintained by Germany at the summit. Furthermore, Mrs Merkel has repeatedly stated that there will be no “joint financing” of eurozone debt (ie eurobonds, or eurobills) before full fiscal union has taken effect. Again, there is no change in that position. Indeed, that is the basis for the German government’s insistence that they have not taken on any extra “joint liabilities” as a result of this summit.

In summary, the summit has given the ESM some new tasks, but no new money with which to discharge these tasks. And many details are obscure.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Source: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis