Tag Archives: Philosophy

David Foster Wallace: This is Water

In 2005, author David Foster Wallace was asked to give the commencement address to the 2005 graduating class of Kenyon College. However, the resulting speech didn’t become widely known until 3 years later, after his tragic death. It is, without a doubt, some of the best life advice we’ve ever come across, and perhaps the most simple and elegant explanation of the real value of education.

THIS IS WATER – By David Foster Wallace from The Glossary on Vimeo.

We made this video, built around an abridged version of the original audio recording, with the hopes that the core message of the speech could reach a wider audience who might not have otherwise been interested.


Source: The Big Picture

Steve Jobs 2005 Stanford Commencement Address

Drawing from some of the most pivotal points in his life, Steve Jobs, chief executive officer and co-founder of Apple Computer and of Pixar Animation Studios, urged graduates to pursue their dreams and see the opportunities in life’s setbacks — including death itself — at the university’s 114th Commencement on June 12, 2005.

Transcript of Steve Jobs’ address:

http://news-service.stanford.edu/news…

Stanford University channel on YouTube:

http://www.youtube.com/stanford


Source: The Big Picture

The Cave: Plato’s Allegory in Claymation

This is a wonderful clay animation adaptation of Plato’s Allegory of the Cave, which dovetails nicely into my Decline of America piece posted yesterday. The video demonstrates simply and briefly how our decline is probable but preventable.

The number of “prisoners” increases daily. My goal is to free as many people from “the cave” as possible. Please share with anyone who may benefit.

Hat tip to my friend Ken at Cicero’s Free Citizen Post for making me aware of the video.

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Kent Thune is the blog author of The Financial Philosopher. You can follow Kent on Twitter @ThinkersQuill.


Source: The Big Picture

America’s Inevitable, Yet Preventable, Decline

“It is no measure of health to be well-adjusted to a sick society.” ~ Jiddu Krishnamurti

Much has been said on the topic of America’s rise and its inevitable, although preventable, decline. But most of what has been said or written uses empirical evidence, specifically historical observations, of the rise and fall of empires, most notably the Roman Empire.

Here on TBP, the Washington Blog recently published a post, called All Empires Crash Soon After They Reach Their Peak. The post notes several common symptoms of empires on the verge of collapse:

The financialization of the economy, moving from manufacturing to speculation;

Very high levels of debt;

Extreme economic inequality;

And costly military overreaching.

These are interesting and important observations that can use a few more thoughts.  For disclosure, I’m not a scientist, nor am I a historian or empiricist; I’m a philosopher. Therefore I don’t care to make prognostications based upon observations of history, where I am most likely to arrive at only correlations. I like to search for causation by non-scientific means. I’ve provided my own thoughts in The Decline of America Part I: What Consumes the Consumers?

Philosophy does not begin with Knowing (at least not from the Rationalist view, ala Plato, and most of Eastern Philosophy, such as Taoism and Buddhism); it begins with Being; before you discover, you must uncover. It is only then that you may recover. But much of Western Philosophy is obsessed with Knowing and thus Being is covered.

With regard to the decline of America, one can easily find correlations to past empires that rose and fell spectacularly. But what is the causation? To begin with Being, consider the meta-physics, not the physics:

Awareness/Attention: This is the center of an individual’s Being; it is consciousness; it is spirit; it is the mind; and if there is no mind, there is only brain. When the individuals of a society lose awareness, consciousness fades and thus the society fades. As America becomes more “civilized” technology creates an environment where consciousness is less necessary to function. Compounding the reduction of awareness is the loss of attention due to constant distraction. Technology makes things easier but it also reduces the need for individuals to think, to use their minds. Therefore more technology equals less mindfulness; the society has more discretionary time but this time is consumed in such a way that it consumes the individual. As Herbert Simon said, “… in an information-rich world, the wealth of information means a dearth of something else: a scarcity of whatever it is that information consumes. What information consumes is rather obvious: it consumes the attention of its recipients. Hence a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention…”

Illusion: In absence of awareness, illusion thrives; and when there are many who do not recognize illusion, there are many illusionists (i.e. politicians, media, extreme religion). For example, politicians are no longer philosopher-types like Ben Franklin, finance-types like Alexander Hamilton, or working class-types like Andrew Jackson; they are now marketers and public speakers; they are illusionists. As the appetite for illusion grows, the demand for illusionists grows. To get elected, politicians must have a great marketing campaign, which costs money, which is just another form of illusion.  Andrew Jackson likely couldn’t get elected today. His appearance, demeanor and ideas would cast him as “fringe.”

Fragmentation: Even as the world becomes more “connected” with the Internet and social media, it becomes increasingly fragmented. There is no “oneness;” there is separation into categories. Each individual can create their own “reality” with personalized news sources, radio stations, television, and wardrobes. There is no “us” to speak of; there is only “me.”

Ego: Combining the previous three points, Ego thrives. People have nearly endless supply of information sources to confirm their biases and preconceived notions. I reiterate, this is creation of a reality, not the reality. Even the most popular gadgets are named in egocentric ways (e.g. iPhone, YouTube).

The primary theme here is not deterministic nor is it anti-American; we do have the capacity to save ourselves but we won’t. In the so-called free society, individuals have the ability to succeed wonderfully but there is also equal potential to fail miserably. At our fingertips we have the capacity to learn all the teachings of Socrates, Plato, Aristotle, Buddha, Nietzsche, Kierkegaard, Jung, Freud and Maslow. But there is no demand for depth; all is superficial; there is no Being; there is only Knowing.  There is greater demand for escaping into the self-created reality with Facebook and the ironically named “reality television.”

“Order is not the order that is imposed by society, by a culture, by environment, by compulsion or obedience.  Order is not a blueprint; it comes into being when you understand disorder, not only outside you but in yourself.  Through the negation of disorder is order.  Therefore we must look at the disorder of our life, the contradictions in ourselves, the opposing desires, saying one thing and doing, thinking another.” ~ Jiddu Krishnamurti

In philosophical terms, individualism consumes itself. The health of the social organism is a total measure of the lower parts of the organism, which will continue to erode as awareness and attention disappear.  There is no incentive to change course. The means to escape is in high demand and thus the incentive create more means to escape persists. As Jiddu Krishnamurti taught, attention is everything. Without attention, we are not ourselves; it is where all of our energy comes from.

The Roman Empire did not decline this way. However, like all declines of nations, societies and civilizations, are preventable.

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Kent Thune is the blog author of The Financial Philosopher. You can follow Kent on Twitter @ThinkersQuill.


Source: The Big Picture

QOTD: 8,000 Points Later . . .

Josh calls out those who have dug their heels in and fought the tape the whole way up. Are these folks part of your daily media diet?

He notes:

“Some people need to reflect back on what they’ve been doing for the last 8,000 points. Others need to reconsider whom they’ve been listening to and what they’ve been reading all this time. Have their influencers gotten things mostly right or mostly wrong? Have they been focused on the bigger issues or missing the forest due to over-examination of each tree?

Nobody gets everything right, but small errors in judgment and minor course corrections are preferable to a complete and total inability to wake up. I know that hindsight makes everything seem obvious and this market has been anything but simple the entire way up…

If you’ve been listening to people who’ve not grasped this concept for the last few thousand points, ask yourself what you plan to do about it? What new choices will you make about the things you’ll pay attention to in the future?”

The people who have been consistently forecasting the future (as opposed to analyzing the present) have, not surprisingly been getting it wrong. What is surprising is their lack of error correction method. We expect to be wrong, have built in a recognition and admission process that prevents us from staying wrong.

This is not to suggest the world is hunky dory and there is nothing to be concerned about. However, there is an issue with those who philosophically cannot wrap their heads around equity markets going up. I am not suggesting that you need to be sanguine all the time — but your methodology has to be more than cherry picking the worst headlines and positioning your portfolio for the next crash, year after year.

There are plenty of things to be concerned about — but there always are. The recession porn crowd’s constant warning of impending doom has not exactly been adding value to your media diet — or your portfolio.

Instead, try watching inputs and data instead of headlines. Consider signals like the A/D line, equity valuations and trend. I find that  is a more productive use of my time than indulging in recession port and fighting the tape the whole way up.

As we have discussed repeatedly, what you read and who you listen to can have a significant impact on your net wealth.

Choose your Yodas wisely.

Source: The Big Picture

Where Is ‘the Party’ Now?

Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded. ~ Yogi Berra

As a philosopher-type, I like to use metaphors; they can be effective in painting an abstract picture that enables universal understanding. But metaphors can also provide a means to concrete translation for the individual. In a non-philosophical description, metaphors can be instructive and entertaining.

So let’s entertain ourselves today by observing the collective capital market and economy in terms of the “party metaphor” and let me know where you think the party is today.

Nothing Attracts a Crowd Like a Crowd

The party metaphor works because every party (and every market cycle) is different, yet they all take a similar shape or form. However, it’s not a perfect metaphor (if there is such a thing) because the beginning of the stock market party is marked by the end of the previous party. There are also people who attend parties but may not be labeled as “partier.” But before I digress into party semantics and appropriateness of metaphors, let’s begin forming a vision of which stage this current capital market and economic party stands today:

The Beginning of the Party: The Federal Reserve brings out the punch bowl to get the party going and the politicians set the mood with music, lighting and games or anything they can find to create atmosphere (better known as illusion).

The Middle of the Party: The party-goers begin to separate into their own groups and assume behavioral roles. There are those party-goers (the partiers) who never seem to stop partying; they are among the first to arrive and the last to leave. There are also the party-goers who attend but stand in the corner sipping on a cocktail, either amusing themselves by observing what they perceive to be the crowd’s foolishness or they are just killing time because their spouse “made them go.” There are also the late-comers who have not yet arrived; they either like being late, they are still trying to decide if they should attend or not, or they haven’t yet heard there is a party because mass media and/or social media is their primary source(s) of information.

The End of the Party: The absolute end of the party is difficult to predict but they have a common form. The beginning of the end comes when the Fed removes the punch bowl (or even when there is a rumor the punch bowl is about to be removed) as some party-goers leave. But the size of the crowd is not yet at its peak. As the absolute end of the party nears, the late-comers are still arriving. Politicians begin to hand out “prizes” (bought, of course, with cover charge money) and they water down the punch, which signals some party-goers to leave but “free stuff” makes the unaware partiers even more excited. The media also begins to spread word of the party, which brings out the final wave of late-comers.

So Where is the Party Now and What Kind of Party-Goer Are You?

We can at least agree that the Fed’s punch bowl is still out. But do you believe the party is nearing an end or might it still be in the middle? What kind of party-goer are you? Personally, I’m the one in the corner sipping on a cocktail while quietly observing others. I’m not the first to arrive, nor the last to leave. I’m self-employed and the vast majority of my capital is in my own business. Therefore I like to “party” at my own house and leave the big parties to the professionals and the amateurs.

Let me know what you think. As Barry would say, “What say ye?”

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Kent Thune is the blog author of The Financial Philosopher. You can follow Kent on Twitter @ThinkersQuill.


Source: The Big Picture

Blame Politicos, Not Reinhart & Rogoff

Source: The Big Picture

Warren Buffett Explains ‘Colorful Charlie’

After a marathon question-and-answer session with shareholders, Becky Quick asks Warren Buffett to comment on some of Charlie Munger’s best lines.

Sat 04 May 13 | 05:00 PM ET


Source: The Big Picture

Predicting Jobs Data Is Hard — and Useless, Too.

This morning, I tweeted out Spencer Jakab’s WSJ column on NFP — It’s a Hard Job Predicting Payrolls Number, with the annotation “Its pointless, too.”

While I understand the obligation many economists have to their employers to make a jobs forecast, you have no such obligation. You don’t have to make a prediction, weigh in, make a guess, create a forecast model or even read other people’s forecasts.

Why not?

Here are three reasons:

1) People are really, really bad at making accurate forecasts:  Most forecasts are at best, an educated hypothesis and at worst, a blind guess. A glance at the history of these sorts of predictions reveals that everyone gets these things wrong. I have yet to see someone consistently forecast these things. Indeed, I have yet to see a good 3 month in a row streak forecast by any economist. We simply lack the ability to predict the future.

2) Modelling isn’t much better: The combination of a huge number of known variables, poor data assembly, and a number of unknown variables — plus a healthy dollop of unforeseen randomness — makes employment data forecasting at best slightly better than raw guessing.

3) Even if you could make an accurate forecast, it wont help you in the markets: That’s the funny part of all this — it is a meaningless exercise for investors, and a dubious one for traders. This is especially true in the present investment environment where the FOMC looms as large as they do. The next level analysis is whether the good news is bad (meaning less accommodation) or good (economic improvement) or conversely where bad news is good (meaning more accommodation) or bad (economic deterioration).

Our time would be better utilized trying to discern the current state of the labor market — what actually is (and recently was) rather than what might be. This is useful data for companies, policymakers and labor participants. It has actual utility. Predictions don’t.

Source: The Big Picture

How Tough Are You?

Source: The Big Picture